If you believe the polls, Joe Biden has a commanding lead nationally and is beating Trump in the battleground states. For sure, he’s headed to an easy victory, right?
Trump supporters say, “Don’t believe the polls,” and pollsters are convinced that after their embarrassing failure in 2016 they’ve got it right this time.
Okay, well, then why is Joe Biden going to Minnesota on Friday? A Republican hasn’t won the state since 1972, and yet, four days before the election, the Biden campaign, which has enough money on hand to work at expanding the map for Democrats, is coming to what should be safe territory for them.
Some in the media are seeing sirens.
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But, polls show Biden ahead. It’s all in the bag for Biden, right? Trust the polls!
Well, let’s consider the facts. In 2016, the last two polls out of Minnesota had Hillary Clinton up in Minnesota by a healthy margin. The Star Tribune poll had Hillary up 8 points, and the KSTP/SurveyUSA poll had her up 10 points.
She won by 1.5 points, a mere 44,765 votes.
Fast-forward to 2020, and the RCP Average has Joe Biden up a mere 4.7 points, and Trump’s been gaining on him in the past two weeks.
And it’s not just Minnesota he’s going to.
Another poll showed Joe Biden up 17 points in Wisconsin. So, why would he waste time there so close to the election?
It seems safe to say that even the Biden campaign knows that public polls aren’t getting things right.