Plenty of pollsters are predicting a “blue wave” this election, showing Joe Biden with a double-digit lead. But one respected pollster says those are “garbage” polls that appear intended to “suppress the vote.”
Jim Lee with Susquehanna Polling and Research isn’t some hair-on-fire conservative, he’s just looking at the numbers. He says that the race right now in the Thunderdome-like state of Pennsylvania is a “dead heat,” but believes that if turn-out trends continue, Donald Trump will win a second term.
Lee, who appeared on “Business Matters” on WFMZ was pinned down by host Tony Iannelli.
LEE: I think it’s going to be a very close race. I don’t see this as a blue wave. I don’t see Biden winning in the states Trump carried in 2016. We are seeing other firms showing it tighten when in my opinion it’s been tight all along. I think Pennsylvania clearly is a battle ground. I think the election is going to be decided by a very small electoral vote outcome.
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[IANNELLI]: Who do you think wins?
LEE: I can’t call it. If the turn out is going to be what I think, Trump wins it.
Another pollster, Dr. Christopher Borick of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion, said the race is neck-and-neck in Pennsylvania for sure but he believes Biden has the advantage.
As we reported at PJ Media, there’s only one other pollster who’s calling the race for President Trump at this point. But then again, Robert Cahaly and his polling firm, The Trafalgar Group, correctly called the race for Trump last time. He did this despite the double-digit, all over but the shouting, start-measuring-the-drapes polls for Hillary Clinton in 2016.
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Lee says those polls and pollsters predicting a Biden “blue wave” with double-digit numbers for Biden aren’t good pollsters for Pennsylvania.
We have the race in Pennsylvania two points in the September poll and other firms showing a margin of error that the race is tied, it’s been tied all along in our estimation.
Real Clear Politics offered this transcript:
[IANNELLI]: I think this is a factual show, which it is. I get the sense that you are mad about something.
LEE: …Polls that come out days before an election that are egregiously off —
[IANNELLI]: Do they affect the vote?
LEE: We’ll never know the answer to that, because clearly in 2016 voters weren’t looking too much at the polls. When a poll comes out with one candidate, in this case Hillary Clinton, winning by 11 points when the winner of the race is the other candidate, that is not an outlier, that is bad polling and makes our entire industry look bad. I called on the American Associated of Public Opinion Research to [crack down] on egregious polling to tighten standards for firms that clearly don’t understand the landscape of Pennsylvania and that guys like Chris and I trying to do quality work, Chris’ last poll in 2016 was in the margin of error. Ours showed the race a statistical tie. When others had the race at 11 points. Do you think that’s voter suppression? I’m sticking up for the industry, we need to [crack down], someone needs to say this is out of control. Just look at those RealClear averages.
And he says the hidden Trump voters exist. It’s because the president says that the current polling is junk and that people aren’t really eager to share with pollsters or other people that they support someone the Left calls “a misogynist to a racist to everything in between. There are a lot of voters out there that don’t want to admit they are voting for a guy that has been called a racist, that submerged Trump factor is very real. We have been able to capture it and I’m really disappointed others have not.”
The Trafalgar Group has called Pennsylvania’s vote giving President Trump an ever-so-thin lead.
Lee says the number jumbling that occurred in 2016, giving Hillary Clinton a double-digit lead, is happening again and the polling business needs to police the fraudsters.
Looking around the country, Lee says, “I don’t see this as a blue wave. I don’t see Biden winning in the states Trump carried in 2016. We are seeing other firms showing it tighten when in my opinion it’s been tight all along. I think Pennsylvania clearly is a battleground. I think the election is going to be decided by a very small electoral vote outcome.”
And he’s calling it ever-so-closely for Trump, but only if people turn out.