The legacy media is making hay with the shrinking lead Republicans have in the generic poll. This national poll doesn’t consider the subtleties of each House and Senate race. Still, many see it as a barometer of how the election is trending. Currently, the RCP average for the generic ballot is Democrats +0.5. It is a dead heat with a near-dead man leading the Democratic Party and implementing policies most Americans hate.
New polling from Convention of States Action, in partnership with The Trafalgar Group, shows a majority of Independent voters say that the Republican Party has not made a strong enough case as to why they should earn support in the 2022 midterm elections. Only 28% say the GOP has made a strong case.
Even worse, only 27% of Hispanic voters say Republicans have made a strong case. Earlier this summer, Hispanic voters had been aligning with the GOP in large numbers. Some polls had a majority saying they would vote Republican in the midterms. One can hope Democrats’ radicalism will motivate them to vote Republican even though they don’t think the case has been made. However, hope is not a strategy. It is always preferable to give people someone to vote for rather than relying on them to be motivated to get to the polls to vote against the other guy.
While a clear majority of black voters believe Republicans have not made the case, 25% say they have. It will be unprecedented if that is even close to the number of black voters that vote Republican in state and local races in November. Ensuring a solid case is made to these voters could tip the scales of every election going forward. Only 6.3% said they are unsure about the strength of the GOP’s message. This share is the lowest percentage of any ethnic group.
“Considering the failure of Afghanistan, inflation, student loans, the recession we are in, the attempted vaccine mandates, the border, and President Biden’s dark and dangerous speech recently, the Biden Administration has been a complete disaster, and his record low approval numbers show that. Logically, one would think that national Republicans would be riding high, able to take advantage of this situation to create momentum,” said Mark Meckler, President of the Convention of States. “Yet, the fact is the feckless leadership, poor communication, and what appears to be a non-existent strategy is causing voters to say loud and clear: you need to try harder. If the GOP thinks they are just going to win this thing by not being Joe Biden, they are sorely mistaken.”
Messaging about economics, national security, the border, and rising crime should be a no-brainer. However, some days it seems as if Mitch McConnell is content to stay Senate Minority Leader. In mid-August, it seemed as if he were already conceding the election.
“I think there’s probably a greater likelihood the House flips than the Senate. Senate races are just different—they’re statewide, candidate quality has a lot to do with the outcome,” he said during a Northern Kentucky Chamber of Commerce luncheon, per NBC News.
“Right now, we have a fifty-fifty Senate and a fifty-fifty country, but I think when all is said and done this fall, we’re likely to have an extremely close Senate, either our side up slightly or their side up slightly,” he continued.
The National Senatorial Republican Committee also withdrew funding from critical Senate races in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Arizona. Smelling blood in the water, on Meet the Press, Vice President Kamala Harris already predicted she would be able to eliminate the filibuster to codify Roe v.Wade and pass voting rights legislation next Congress. Democrats already erased a key Supreme Court win in West Virginia vs. EPA by empowering the agency to regulate greenhouse gasses in the so-called Inflation Reduction Act. They will undoubtedly act to implement radical policy with Harris gaveling in the tie-breaker.
Speaker Kevin McCarty is trying. House leadership created a “Commitment to America.” Still, it is getting buried by the Mar-a-Lago raid fallout and new Department of Justice attacks on key advisors to the former president. Republicans should stop taking interviews to comment on Trump drama and talk about nothing but their plans to defund tyranny in 2023.